When adjusting the estimate for the number of distinct values from a
rel in a grouped query to take into account the selectivity of the
rel's restrictions, use a formula that is less likely to produce
under-estimates.

The old formula simply multiplied the number of distinct values in the
rel by the restriction selectivity, which would be correct if the
restrictions were fully correlated with the grouping expressions, but
can produce significant under-estimates in cases where they are not
well correlated.

The new formula is based on the random selection probability, and so
assumes that the restrictions are not correlated with the grouping
expressions. This is guaranteed to produce larger estimates, and of
course risks over-estimating in cases where the restrictions are
correlated, but that has less severe consequences than
under-estimating, which might lead to a HashAgg that consumes an
excessive amount of memory.

This could possibly be improved upon in the future by identifying
correlated restrictions and using a hybrid of the old and new
formulae.

Author: Tomas Vondra, with some hacking be me
Reviewed-by: Mark Dilger, Alexander Korotkov, Dean Rasheed and Tom Lane
Discussion: http://www.postgresql.org/message-id/flat/56CD0381.5060502@2ndquadrant.com